Here’s why I always warn people not to listen to polls taken a year in advance.
A year ago, the media were slamming Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for allegedly turning Florida into a killing field with his reluctance to shut down the whole state over COVID-19. Meanwhile, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo as being hailed as a genius, handed an inexplicable Emmy Award, and writing a self-congratulatory book. Polls reflected this, with DeSantis dropping 11 points to 53%, while Cuomo skyrocketed to 72% approval.
One year later, Cuomo’s devastating bad decisions are finally being uncovered and he’s fighting efforts to impeach and remove him. Meanwhile, Florida is a COVID success story and DeSantis is at 55% approval, including 22% of Democrats, and holds double-digit leads over all his reelection challengers.
Then again, DeSantis’ race isn’t until next fall. I wish him well, but remind him: yesterday’s polls are like yesterday’s newspapers; only good for bird cage liner.