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March 14, 2022
- March 15, 2022

My good friend Colonel Ken Allard has sent me this Ukraine update for my newsletter readers. I hope you will read it!


Mike Huckabee

Three weeks into the Russo-Ukraine War of 2022, it is reasonable to ask: Who is deterring whom - and from what?

So far, the only one being deterred seems to be Joe Biden, who clumsily refused to allow Polish Mig-29’s to be transferred to Ukraine despite the fervent pleas of embattled president Volodomyr Zelenskiy. Meanwhile, Old Uncle Joe was busy linking Vladimir Putin not only to the war in Ukraine but also to sky-rocketing American gas prices and rising inflation, twin outrages for which the Russian premiere bears only slight, if any, responsibility. Through such constant buffoonery, President Biden seems intent on channeling that canonical Mayor of Amity, hilariously reassuring townsfolk that a lucrative tourist season lay just ahead, despite Jaws occasionally snacking on their relatives.

Because we are a nation divorced from studying such politically incorrect subjects as military history, we can no longer distinguish the consequential from the trivial, the capillaries from the arteries.  From Afghanistan to Ukraine, our intelligence community has been hit hardest, seemingly unable to predict whether Tuesday will be followed by Wednesday. Not only were our intel weenies utterly mistaken in predicting how fast the Taliban would triumph but they also admitted last week to the House Intelligence Committee that they had seriously under-estimated the fighting spirit of Ukraine’s citizens. Naturally, they over-corrected, reciting a laundry list of Russian tactical shortcomings. Caught up in the latest zeitgeist, Francis Fukuyama - famous for predicting the end of history several decades too early - argued last week “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine…The army in the field will reach a point whether they can no longer be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.”

While we can all hope that Professor Fukuyama will be proven right, America’s enemies seem to be a long way from desperation. While we plead for them to produce additional oil and prepare to sign yet another nuclear non-proliferation scam, the Iranians were not deterred at all - raining their rockets down on an American consulate in Irbil, Iraq. How much does Putin fear NATO - with or without a rearmed Germany - when he launches air-strikes that came within a dozen miles of Polish territory over the weekend? And for good measure also threatened to target logistical routes acting as lifelines to the Ukrainian resistance?

Please forgive me for casting doubt on such widely-cherished Beltway assumptions: But Vladimir Putin and his fellow conspirators in the new Axis nations are not desperate! Instead, they have concluded - correctly in my view - that America suffers from catastrophically weak leadership, that it has abandoned its core spiritual values, as well as the world-beating confidence that our country once took for granted. While conceding that American martial prowess can be painfully recovered (or at least not entirely ruled out) neo-Axis leaders believe that the timing will never be better for a basic re-ordering of the global order. That new order will naturally reflect non-Western interests and dismiss any weaker set of values.  

Ukraine is already one major stake in this game, Taiwan is surely next while NATO’s newly-minted Baltic states might not be far off. When measured against the potential stakes, who cares if Russian logistical problems persist, if they lose a few tanks or if they sacrifice a few more generals trying to recapture the morale of their troops? As my friend LTG Jim Dubik wrote recently, “Like other raw realists, Putin has no intention of stopping with Ukraine…Raw realists (like him) take what they can, when they can, until someone stops them.”

I am also a realist of sorts, one who cherishes memories of the West Point faculty but now wonders how far the fault lines extend when five cadets are hospitalized after taking fentanyl-laced cocaine while on spring break. To say nothing of that loser who belatedly forfeited his commission only after posting a selfie that argued, “Communism will win.”  It is also frustrating to see other losers with stars on the shoulders of their World War II knock-off uniforms, who have either forgotten or never learned the harsh lessons of real war.

They now confront an opponent who will shrug off small shortcomings to focus on the larger objective- using traditional Russian reliance on massed troops and massed firepower to compel the enemy’s total compliance or complete obliteration. He will not be stopped by the mindless half-measures or the bloodless counter-moves now passing for “deterrence.”

During a three-decade career, Colonel Allard advanced from draftee to the West Point faculty and Dean of the National War College. The author of four books, he was also an on-air military analyst for the networks of NBC News.

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Comments 1-10 of 45

  • Patricia A. Driscoll

    03/17/2022 03:50 PM

    How outrageous that the United States should be begging for oil. We have everything we need - here. It is morally wrong. How outrageous that the United States continues to play a wait-and-see game with the Russo-Ukraine war. It is morally wrong, just as it was morally wrong of the United States to play the wait-and-see game to stop Hitler. We the people continue to wait for a straightforward answer to the arms being given to the Ukraines, to the ongoing negotiation with the Iranians, to the extent of the limitations on our oil needs, to the morally wrong open border, and to all the other lies that are being spewed from the leftist media. Half this country is fed up with the lies and the ineptitude of this administration. The other half, well, we shall see come November just where it will all go. Praying for the Ukraine. Praying for America. Praying for the world.

  • Suzanne Scott

    03/17/2022 08:46 AM

    This is the best assessment I have read of the devastating display of weak leadership both from our military leadership and our president. Thank you Colonel Allard for so precisely summing it up and thank you Mike for sharing it with us. As a retired college professor of American history I wholeheartedly agree that most Americans do not have a clear understanding of our history be it political or military. Thank you

  • R Reedy

    03/16/2022 07:53 PM

    Need for verifiable paper ballots in elections. Perhaps if we had them, we would not have this problem. And, the “hoax” has not yet been fully exposed. Who was “to blame” in the hoax? Consequences, maybe?

  • Chris Bender

    03/16/2022 02:32 PM

    The Pentagon has not done its job since ww2 when they started ALLOWING the state department to tell it how to win a war ..... You have advanced every brass person qualified or not ..... Your politics are worse then the swamp .... Your intelligence is Disney world !!!!!!!!
    Your proving you can talk the talk BUT walk the walk ???????????

  • Robert E Center

    03/16/2022 01:41 PM

    Colonel, your article in Mike Hukabee’s Newsletter hit the X ring. I was a Sgt. and radioman in the USAF. I served in Vietnam from September 1967 to September 1968. I am not, and don’t consider myself a trained military tactician. But this administration’s actions, in Afghanistan and Ukrainian were aptly described by the Army War College. “A Clown Show.” May Our God have mercy on the USA. Thank You for declaring the Truth. Blessings ! Bob

  • Mike Grayson

    03/16/2022 01:16 PM

    I have been thinking about this since I first read it, wondering why the Biden Administration is so blind to the reality point out in this article by Col. Allard. I believe it has to do with the problem of worldview.

    It is rooted in our ability to communicate with one another, and with God. The recipient determines whether or not communication takes place. What I mean by that is you can talk until you are blue in the face but if the person isn't listening - or - UNDERSTANDING, then communication hasn't happened.

    And a person cannot understand what is being said if the message doesn't fit with their worldview or values. It will be either ignored or rejected. That's why it is so difficult for a conservative to talk to a liberal, their world views are different. Even the Lord had to strike Saul blind before He could raise him up as Paul. He had to change Paul's worldview.

    That probably explains why parents have such a hard time talking to teenagers, but once they get married and have children, communication can take place. Their worldview and values have changed to the point where they are ready to understand what is being said. That is what the Lord did to Paul on the road to Damascus - he changed his world view.

    So, what does that say about our communication with God? It makes James 1:2 a little easier to understand - "Consider it all joy, my brethren, when you encounter various trials,". Why? Because it is through trials and testing that God is raising us up to the next level of communication with Him. Just like He did to Paul.

    It may take something incredibly dramatic to change the worldview of those in the Biden Administration.

  • Mike Grayson

    03/16/2022 12:57 PM

    Incredibly good analysis by someone who has been in the trenches.

  • Dana Vincent

    03/16/2022 12:36 PM

    Gas prices will go down but not because of anything Biden will do. They'll go down when the shareholders get their money back. Period! Right now China has about 80 million people locked down because of another virus which is also hitting their industrial area. No workers, no need for oil for energy to run the plants. Though the price per barrel will drop some, it won't readily be reflected at the pump for awhile. After the investment issue is taken care of, then supply and demand will once again take over. Too much supply and prices will slowly drop. Until that time, people will suffer that painful bite in the wallet each time they go to the pump. That's another reason no big investment was made in the oil industry. Biden? All he did was make the problem worse in Jan., 2021!

  • Ron David

    03/16/2022 12:23 PM

    Good morning Mike, What an update on the war in Ukraine by Colonel Allard. The best that I have seen so far! Thanks for sharing it with me. This update should go nation-wide.

    Ron David-Colonel (ret.)

  • Darlene F. Donston

    03/16/2022 11:23 AM

    Thanks so much for sending this! America is in such deep trouble with what is going on and it will not end soon enough or ? I am also thinking with the Baltic on the line, what about Alaska! Personally, I don't believe that what is on TV is all the news as I am getting so many emails about what is really happening to the Adults and Children! Tragic! We do need to stop those Fly Overs! God Bless the Ukraine!