Evaluating Election Day Results

November 8, 2017

This week brought some major political anniversaries. Monday was the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution that brought down Russia’s Tsar and ushered in nearly 75 years of communism – and (coincidentally, according to today’s college students) starvation, poverty, mass death, oppression, aggression, tyranny and…oh yes, “droughts.” Tuesday was also the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s unexpected defeat of Hillary Clinton (well, I predicted it, but nobody listened), which ushered in 12 months of liberals across America and all over the media throwing a 24/7 tantrum and screaming about “Resistance” like a Bolshevik revolutionary who was told to take a bath.

Yesterday will also go down as a political date of its own importance, but with echoes of both previous events. Tuesday’s elections are being depicted (let’s be honest: “celebrated”) in the media as a November Revolution, a Republican Armageddon, a Democratic tsunami proving that, to quote George Costanza, “We’re back, baby!” As usual, most commentators are letting their personal biases color their interpretations. I know I’ll be accused of trying to put a pro-Republican happy face on a rotting Jack-o-lantern, but I’m honestly not. I try to give you honest and informed analysis, good or bad, because blowing smoke does the GOP no good. You don’t want to be like one of those wailing Democrats a year ago who believed the polls about Hillary. So here goes:

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First of all, the highest profile Dem wins (governors in Virginia and New Jersey) were entirely predictable. Both states were the Dems’ to lose. New Jersey is solid blue, and the Republican candidate was tainted by his association with outgoing Gov. Chris Christie, who has popularity problems unrelated to Trump or conservatism. And in Virginia, the heavy northern influx of lobbyists, government workers and other big government dependents during the Obama era has spread, turning the once-purple state so blue that the last governor elected there was Clinton fixer Terry McAuliffe. Republican Ed Gillespie always faced a steep climb. Some analysts say he was too associated with Trump. Trump says he didn’t embrace his issues enough. Others say he did embrace them, but Trump voters didn’t believe him. And some analysts just said it was a mistake to run on national issues instead of local issues. They all have a point, but none touch on the most important fact.

As one analyst put it, Republicans turned out as if it were a regular election, while Democrats turned out in huge numbers. They’ve were fired up by a solid year of ‘round-the-clock anti-Trump rhetoric, and they charged to the polls like bulls who’ve had a red flag waved in their faces for 12 months. Whether these wins will energize them even more next year, or they’ll eventually get tired of the nonstop divisiveness is hard to predict, but so far, it seems to be only getting worse, not dissipating. They're thriving on their liquid diet of anti-Trump vitriol.

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Republicans should be more concerned about Democratic wins further down the ballot, in states where they should have had better odds. 2020 is a redistricting year, and they don’t want to turn the drawing of voting district lines over to the same party that thinks opinions they disagree with should be treated with shout-downs, punches, riots, tax audits, lawsuits and jail terms.

Coming into 2018, Republicans need to energize their base, and despite the Democrats’ Tuesday sweep, I don’t believe that parties can build a longterm winning strategy on relentless negativity. Democrats won largely because they were so fired up by the non-stop anti-Trump drumbeat. Republicans might have persuadable to show up and counter that, but the party gave them no positive reasons to do so. People want something to vote for, not just to vote against. This election is being painted by the left as a Democratic resurgence, but a new CNN poll shows the party has a 37% favorability rating, a 25-year low. (Before Republicans sigh in relief, their rating is 30%.)


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Comments 1-5 of 41

  • Michael Egbert

    11/12/2017 04:09 PM

    You have to admire President Trump's stamina and courage having to face the opposition being thrown at him. There are many who would have wavered and fallen by now. Even if the Spirit of God like a Dove were to come down on our President...they would find fault with it. The "Evil One" has been at work with the media and he hasn't been taking any coffee breaks!

  • Gerritt W KENYON

    11/12/2017 03:20 PM

    Get so tired of poor reporting where everything is known as opinion column instead of journalism, that I turn on Hogan's Heroes to rest or quiet my mind. Separate what is news and repetitious opinion - Enjoying your news letter.

  • Nelda Howard

    11/12/2017 11:45 AM

    New: CIA Agent Whistleblower Risks All To Expose The Shadow Government- on You Tube. I watched this for 1 hour and 7 minutes 2 days ago and it disturbed me terribly. I am sure you may have read it or at least heard about it and is this true. If so, what can we do about it.
    I always enjoy your emails. Look forward to them daily. I hope you can look into this and get back to me. It is frightening. Thank you!

  • Joe Kunkle

    11/12/2017 10:01 AM

    Regarding millennials falling for Marxism in a day when we have such brilliant examples of its successes, i.e. Cuba, N. Korrea, and Venezuela, I remember Nikita Kruschev pounding on the podium at the U.N. and bragging how "you will fall into our hands like ripe fruit." I could not imagine back then that it could happen in my life-time!
    J. Edear Hoover and J. McCarthy were right---and character assassinated for their trouble!

  • Bonnie Knight

    11/09/2017 03:57 PM

    Mike, I read your comments and pretty much agree with everything. I also agree with Carl's comment about standing together. I watch Fox news and I really don't think the commentators are doing us any favor by attaching any of the Republican candidates. I get very frustrated when they can't seem to get on the same page and get something done (don't even get me started on John mc cain!) but to keep talking about how bad they are just adds fire to the D's arguments. I have been accused more than once of not being a team player - I think it was Patton that said if everybody thinks the same thing, nobody is thinking, but there is a time to close ranks and not help the opposing team. I agree the legislature could be doing better but it really does not help to keep telling people (especially Trump supporters) to get these people out of office - nothing like helping the other team.