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October 17, 2022

I always urge Republicans not to put too much stock in polls, and just keep working as if we’re down 10 points and have to make it up somehow. But that caveat aside, the election is getting close enough that even biased polling outfits have to start admitting the truth or risk looking completely incompetent when the votes come in. So we’re actually seeing polls by outlets like CNN and the New York Times delivering some grim news to Democrats. Indications are that it won’t just be a red wave, it will be a bloodbath (figuratively, of course!)

The latest New York Times/Sienna College poll finds that despite relentless media bashing, Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden 45-44% if the election were held today. On the generic ballot poll, likely voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by 49-45%. Voters ranked the economy and inflation as their top issues, while only 5% named abortion, and 64% believe the country is on the wrong track. Biden’s approval has slipped below 40%, and only 33% of registered voters would vote for him if the election were held today.

The latest Rasmussen poll also shows Republicans with a 7-point generic ballot lead, 48-41%.

Three other generic ballot polls show Republicans ahead by anywhere from 2 to 6 points, and those include CBS and Harvard polls.

As that linked story explains, this is stunning because GOP pollsters assume the polls undercount Republicans (this year, I think they’ve vastly undercounted, with so many refusing to talk to pollsters out of concern that the FBI will raid their homes.) They say it usually signals a big GOP win if the Democrats lead by only 3 points. In these polls, the Dems are behind by as much as 7 points. Among likely voters in competitive districts, Republicans lead by 48-43%.

Good news, but still: keep working as if we’re down by 10. That way, we can build a big enough vote lead to overcome any totally nonexistent Democrat vote fraud.

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