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January 24, 2023

I hate even to bring this up when we’re still in the first month of 2023, but the 2024 Presidential race is already getting rolling and potential contenders are inflating trial balloons, like Nikki Haley…

And Joe Manchin!

I always warn people to beware of polls taken well before elections, and this is the ultimate example, but a new Harvard-Harris Poll shows that Trump has taken a clear 5-point lead over Biden (46-41%, but the questions are how would the undecideds break, and between those two, who in the world is still undecided?)

DeSantis also leads Biden but not by as much, which I have to assume means a lot of people haven't been paying attention to how well Florida is run compared to Biden’s smoldering DC dumpster fire. The poll also shows Trump as the clear GOP primary frontrunner, with a 20-point lead over DeSantis. This is why I expect Biden’s DOJ to try to find something, anything, to indict Trump for, even if it’s something Biden did and worse. I also expect that it won’t make much difference to Republican voters, who will see it as more political dirty tricks by a federal agency whose credibility is not merely down the toilet, it’s halfway to the sewage processing plant by now.

Finally, some analysis by Dick Morris that takes factors into account that most half-informed talking heads aren’t even aware of, like how the number of primary candidates might benefit or harm Trump, the impact of the GOP base’s anger at Mitch McConnell, and Florida’s “resign to run” law that would require DeSantis to step down as Governor to run for President.

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