Evening Edition - August 21

5 minute read

August 21, 2019

A new CNN poll shows that Kamala Harris, who seemed to be rising after the first debate where she blindsided Joe Biden as a busing-opposing racist, is now sinking fast after opponents publicized her record of keeping people in prison regardless of pesky details such as their innocence when she was California Attorney General.  

This latest poll shows Harris has sunk to just 5% while Biden has regained a double digit lead.  He’s still 10 points lower than he was a couple of months ago, but he has 29% support, well ahead of Bernie Sanders (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (14%.)

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/08/poll-kamala-harris-is-sinking.php

At the link, Paul Mirengoff of the Powerline blog points out that all the Democratic poll frontrunners are legislators instead of anyone with executive experience at actually running anything (Biden doesn’t count as someone who’s actually run something, having been a Vice President.)  Mirengoff surmises that this is because the Party has turned so far to the left that anyone who performed the necessary duties of an actual executive, such as enforcing laws or prosecuting criminals, would automatically be disqualified in the eyes of the leftist Utopians who now make up the primary base. 

In other words, the Democrats have drifted so far away from reality that to their base, having qualifications for the Presidency is now a disqualification.    

A couple of other points to take from this poll are that Biden’s claim that Democrats should support him because he’s the most electable is built on a foundation of sand, and to quote Roger Miller, his poll numbers swing like a pendulum do.  You should also heed my point, made before every election and always ignored by the media, that polls this far out from an election are about as trustworthy as an email promise of $10 million from a Nigerian prince. 

 

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While polls this early aren’t reliable, some of them are more interesting and fun than others.  One that deserves notice is the Iowa State Fair’s “Cast Your Kernel” poll, which lets fairgoers drop a kernel of corn into the bottle of the presidential candidate they support.

For the past couple of weeks, Democratic hopefuls have been running around the fairground more than 4H members with prize-winning pullets, trying to drum up support.  But with all the corn kernels now cast, the results were 33,280 kernels cast for Republican candidates, and 33,165 cast for Democrats.  Broken down by candidate, Trump had 32,375 kernels, while the top Democrat, Biden, had only 8,143.  That’s remarkable, considering Trump didn’t even visit the Iowa State Fair.

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/despite-visits-2020-dem-hopefuls-gop-trump-win-iowas-cast-kernel-poll/

It sounds corny, but in the last election, Trump beat Hillary by 56-44% in the kernel contest, and he went on to win Iowa by close to 10 points.  I believe that makes the corn kernel poll substantially more accurate than most polls in 2016, and a heck of a lot easier to swallow. 

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Joe Biden has released his first TV commercial to run in Iowa, and it gives a preview of how Democrats plan to run against Trump.  Predictably, it doesn’t mention the economy or jobs, and it doesn’t mention the Democrats’ record of accomplishments, because…well, they want to win. Instead, it attempts to scare voters into thinking that Trump is as big a monster as he is in the nightmares they have about him every night after switching off Stephen Colbert.

https://www.westernjournal.com/joe-biden-shows-strategy-first-2020-tv-ad-paint-trump-erratic-vicious-bullying/

The ad makes it appear that America is in the grip of a rising epidemic of white nationalism (that seems to be the term the focus groups liked best after “Russian collusion” tanked).  Biden isn’t merely running for President, he’s running for Savior (thanks, but I've already got one.) The ad promises that Biden will “restore the soul of a nation battered by an erratic, vicious, bullying President” with his “strong, steady, stable leadership.”

First impression: I’m not sure that a Party whose strongest conviction is defending and promoting the slaughter of babies in (and freshly out of) the womb should be talking about how to restore the nation's soul. Second impression: I can think of several words that describe Joe Biden, but “steady” and “stable” are not among them.

 

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President Trump said Tuesday that among various tax cuts the White House is considering is a reduction in the payroll tax, which covers Medicare and Social Security.  Trump stressed that the economy is still strong and this isn’t something immediate, but such a cut would keep more money in consumers’ pockets and help keep the economy humming. 

https://www.westernjournal.com/trump-white-house-considering-payroll-tax-cut/

I can already hear the howls of protest from the left: Medicare and Social Security need all the funding they can get!  Only a crazy man would suggest cutting the payroll tax!  They conveniently forget that under Obama in 2011-2012, the payroll tax was cut from 6.2% to 4.2%.  For a worker making $50,000 a year, that was a savings of about $83 a month.  That cut was allowed to expire, so what Trump is really talking about is simply bringing back an Obama tax cut. I guess that will give the Democratic Presidential candidates one more part of Obama’s record to attack.   

Incidentally, as long as I’m clearing up misconceptions about the payroll tax, I should also point out that workers don’t really pay 6.2%, they pay double that, or 12.4%.  Half of it is called the “employer’s contribution,” and you are led to believe that your employer pays it.  But think about it: it’s a cost of having you as an employee.  You’re obviously worth that much (it’s factored into your compensation when they determine what hiring you will cost.)  So if it weren’t going to the government, it could be going into your pocket. Therefore, in reality, you pay 6.2% that you see deducted from your salary on your paystub, plus the 6.2% that you don’t see because your employer pays it directly to the government instead of including it in your salary. 

If you don’t think that’s true, ask some self-employed people how big a check they have to write to cover their payroll taxes.  Then ask them if they could use a payroll tax cut.   

 

 

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Comments 1-17 of 17

  • Barb Sabin

    08/22/2019 05:40 PM

    Dear Governor, thanks for the smiles and sometimes, your humor makes me chuckle out loud!!! Thank God for your horse sense and practical application of the whacky news!!! You are one of my heros, brother!!!

  • Melissa Thatch

    08/22/2019 01:26 PM

    Thank you, Mike for great insight!

  • Dusty

    08/22/2019 10:50 AM

    A JOKE! How is it possible that VP Biden is ahead. What did he and Pres Obama do for 8 yr. Now all of these candidates will make things better then what Pres Trump has been trying and fought by the SWAMP on both sides? No, the jobs we see now were now here with either Pres Obama or VP Biden. Now give all to illegals there are kids and but they grow up to be cowboys . We have kids on our streets now? Look and beware voters on what you wish for.

  • Marilyn Fischer

    08/22/2019 01:39 AM

    Love ya, Mike! Pray your nose and eye are all better! I miss your beautiful daughter, Sarah!!
    XOXO

  • Anne Amato

    08/21/2019 11:39 PM

    Dear Governor,
    Your "plays on words" are hilarious! Loved the "corny" one!

    As far as 2020 is concerned, I am very worried about several things:
    1) Election fraud....many states do not have voter ID laws.

    2) Along that same line....so many areas have mail-in ballots....or ballots that can be hand-delivered to the court house (in our county anyway). Thing is...you can hand-deliver 3 ballots as long as each has a "recognized registered voter" counter-sign the outer envelope.
    Well....prior to the 2018 election, approximately 256,000 new voters registered.
    AND....AMONG THOSE....10 OF THEM WERE AGE 100 OR OLDER! So...who exactly is getting these elderly people to register? Who is going to old-age or nursing homes? Who is actually VOTING on those ballots?

    3) No matter where you live in this state...ALL MAIL goes to Minneapolis "to be sorted". There is NO "local" mail. Then...after sorting there, local mail is sent back to the various local post offices,..,where it has to be re-sorted for various delivery eoutes...many of them rural. Having no local mail Makes ZERO SENSE.
    AND (partly due to this convoluted system) no way to know IF you mail your ballot (without PAYING for "registered-return receipt", whether it got back to main polling place in time...(county seat court house)...or if it arrived at all.

    3) The continuing efforts by companies such as Google, Facebook, Yahoo and others to only offer left wing news....influencing hundreds of thousands of voters.

    4) The Millenial Vote....so young and probably 90% so gullible....hopefully am wrong about that....but doubt it.

    If President Trump wants to get out the vote of those of us who are retired, worked all our lives, and trying to live ON Social Security....perhaps a good idea would be for him to decide to give an increase to those currently receiving Social Security benefits....like....a measly 5%....that would NOT automatically go to increased prices for Medicare (like one of the last ones did).
    Perhaps if he declared his intention to do this just prior to the election....rural,mretired Americans would make a greater effort to get to the polls and vote FOR him!


  • Clay C Cole

    08/21/2019 11:33 PM

    Yes, as a self-employed person, I NEED a payroll tax cut!!!

  • Jerry

    08/21/2019 11:25 PM

    The last 25 years I can not see what the lure is what the Dem/Socialist organization has. It seems to grab a lot of Black votes the general Black population under Democratic policies seem to operate at the poverty line or below it yet they continue to support that party. I'am baffled at the jewish population seem to vote Democratic I question why? Do they enjoy watching Black people suffer with Democratic policies or people in general thats what the party brings suffering and decay. The Media must enjoy decay and suffering it condones the organization policies and anti America outline. So exactly what does the party do for people in this country? It is after they get their votes and are put into making decisions on how a community or state is going to operate; you end up with millions of dollars for trains that go no where, tenants on the streets and under the bridges live like hobos, murders that happen and go unsolved people living like 3rd world citizens, who and what votes for that? That is a trillion dollar question. Anybody have an answer? I sure do not!!!!!!

  • Donna pope

    08/21/2019 10:55 PM

    You are so right about the employers paying the employers contribution tax. Most people have no idea! They also think they “earned “the workman’s unemployment they receive because they think it came out of their paycheck. I required my adult cosmetology students to figure payroll taxes in presenting the business chapter.

  • JB Spira

    08/21/2019 10:48 PM

    Democratic Presidential candidates or Democrat Presidential candidates?
    Why does this happen? Does no American citizen notice the difference?

  • Sid Levin

    08/21/2019 10:38 PM

    Mike, maybe President would listen to you, and get rid of the TAX on Social Security payments!
    As someone collecting SS, I paid the SS tax when I worked and Now, thanks to Bill Clinton, I am paying AGAIN! Double taxation! I know that lots of OUR fellow Senior Citizens would LOVE to have more money in their (and our) pockets!

  • gary Stilwell

    08/21/2019 09:34 PM

    On the tax stuff--this is actually verifiable, and true! I was been under the same code for may years as an employee--had to really get ugly with the Company about it--and my congressmen(ask me how much they helped)

  • william fuhrer

    08/21/2019 09:33 PM

    If you have interns American History TV CSPAN3 6/6/19 had a panel addressing RELIGIOUS INFLUENCE ON UNITED STATES POLICY. Professor Leroy Martin of Washington Univerity in St. Louis was very interesting

  • Elizabeth Honaker

    08/21/2019 09:33 PM

    I suggest that, instead of running for president, Joe Biden run for Silliest Network Talk Show Host. I think his constant spate of gaffes would generate a lot of late-night laughter!

  • Ronald Besse

    08/21/2019 09:08 PM

    There is no way he should reduce the payroll tax. If anything they should increase the current max on S.S. and Medicare to at least make an effort to keep the fund from running out of money as currently projected in future years. My guess is they will run out anyway since congress keeps kicking the can down the road but my grandkids won't have it so lucky. Let us not forget the 1/2 billion Obama took out of Medicare to fund the ACA.

  • Gladys Hizer

    08/21/2019 08:22 PM

    All the Democrat poll #'s are interesting but what about the Conservative News article of August 17th that said Fox News Poll stated that every leading Democratic candidate would beat Trump if the election were today? Joe Biden 50% to Trump 38%, Bernie Sanders 48% to Trump 39%, Kamala Harris 45% to Trump 39% and Elizabeth Warren 46% to Trump 39%.

  • Ron E Perkins

    08/21/2019 08:12 PM

    Mike you are absolutely right as usual.Thanks.

  • Stephen Russell

    08/21/2019 08:03 PM

    President cutting foreign aid to 100 nations, Hooray Yes
    Save 100B