Don't believe the polls

May 20, 2019

I try to warn people not to read too much into elections in other nations and apply it to America because politics are often local, and each nation has a very specific set of problems, issues and personalities that may not reflect the situation in the US.

Still, it’s understandable that commentators can’t help drawing parallels between the “shocking” election in Australia over the weekend and the 2016 US presidential election.

All the pollsters were so certain that the leftwing Labor Party was going to wipe out the currently ruling Liberal Party (in Australia, they’re right-of-center) that the Labor candidates were practically measuring the offices for drapes already.  They were raring to go on remaking Australia into a liberal/green Utopia.  Their leader had promised to raise taxes on “the wealthy” and start from day one making “climate change” the #1 priority in every policy.  They were all set to impose the Down Under version of the Green New Deal.  But they overlooked one minor detail: the voters.


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With about two-thirds of the votes counted, current Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s conservative governing coalition is leading in 77 races, and only 76 are needed for a majority.  The Labor Party is well behind at 66.   

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48324896

So what happened?  Morrison called it a “miracle.”  Leftists took the surprise loss just as well as Hillary Clinton and her supporters did, and immediately began insulting and attacking the voters, calling them “morons,” “dumb,” “mean-spirited,” “greedy” and “rotten” for not voting them into power  (I’ve long heard it said that “No Democrat ever lost a ‘fair’ election,” and apparently, that’s one thing that does translate to Australia.)  I’m sure they’ll get around to blaming Russia by next week.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/australian-election-voters-reject-leftist-ideas/

The far more likely reason is one that applies here as well: the leftist politicians and the leftist media and the leftist pollsters created a big echo chamber.  You can tell from those reactions to the vote that if you disagree with them in any way, you're deplorable and they don’t even want to hear from you.  So people lied to pollsters, for the same reasons that they avoid putting Trump stickers on their cars: they know those people are crazy, and they don’t want their cars keyed.  But in the privacy of the voting booth, they express what they really think.

And they really think the left’s ideas are bat-poop crazy and will destroy the economy, personal freedom and all the traditional values that have made their nation great.  It doesn’t mean they don’t care about the environment or want their children to breath poison air (“conservation” and “conservative” share the same root, after all.)  They might even agree with the premise that humans are contributing to climate change.  But they don’t believe the solution is to turn over total control of their money and their lives to a bunch of arrogant leftist wannabe tyrants.   


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If there is a lesson for Americans to learn from the Australian election (aside from “Don’t believe polls” – one just claimed that Joe Biden is 11 points ahead of Trump, and it took Hillary until a month or so before the election before they claimed she was 11 points ahead), it was summed up well in that linked article by Matthew Lesh of Britain’s Adam Smith Institute.  Don’t try to run as “leftists lite.”  Draw a sharp line of difference.  Let the voters know that you are the party of less government, lower taxes, more jobs and more freedom, and they are the party that wants to raise taxes, bloat government, punish industry and take over the world in the name of changing the climate.  Then trust the voters to be wise enough to choose the right path.

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Comments 1-11 of 11

  • Maris K Hodges

    05/23/2019 10:54 PM

    Once again I laughed reading this article. Do you know how precious laughter is in this crazy world we live in? Thanks Huckabee for once again giving us laughter!

  • Helen Corey

    05/20/2019 04:30 PM

    I always believed Australians are survivors and smart. They know BS when they hear it. Hope US voters learn from their brothers down under.

  • Robert McFate

    05/20/2019 02:57 PM

    Polls 19 month before an election have no meaning. You don't even know which leftist clown is going to be the winner.

  • S. Jerome Elnessr

    05/20/2019 01:58 PM

    (1) Freedom From Religion group from Madison, Wisconsin, has interfered in Hibbing, Minnesota, pressuring the local government to remove the 10 Commandments from the court house in Hibbing, Minnesota. The 10Commandments have hung there for 50 years. Freedom From Religion has NOTHING better to put in it's place. Judges 21:25 states, "In those days Israel had no king (authority); everyone did as he saw fit." Most people here have no idea know of anarchy is and the chaos of gangs or individuals looting, raping, and stealing.The first institutions of learning, hospitals, and orphanages were started by those of Judeo Christian heritage. I don't kn ow of a single positive effort or institution begun by Freedom From Religion group. When there are churches in a community the cost of law enforcement goes down. Jails have been closed as crime goes down. Freedom From Religion history shows only brings havoc!

  • Lawrence E. Foster

    05/20/2019 01:48 PM

    Two cautions in predicting elections. First, do not believe the polls - almost all of them are run for rhte purpose of advancing one candidte, and their internal honesty is in question. Two, do not undrestimate the ability of the democ-rats to steal elections. The AADV (American Association of Dead Voters) will be out in force, as will bus loads of voters who will go from polling place to polling place to vote multiple times, courtesy of the labor unions.

  • Laura Hatcher

    05/20/2019 01:45 PM

    Thank you for all the good information you provide on TV, internet and wherever you are speaking!I
    I don't believe the polls either.

  • Ronda Wells MD

    05/20/2019 01:44 PM

    All I know is in tiny Clay City, Ky (Appalachia) - went to uncle's funeral (he served 40 years as Church of God elder) The next day we went to church with our aunt and an elderly gent strolled in with his MAGA 2020 hat on. It sat at his feet the whole service, but he's obviously not changed his vote from 2016!
    God Bless

  • Helen Nevot

    05/20/2019 01:42 PM

    Right on!, Mike! I hope the Am. Voters can see through all the leftist “bat poop” and choose well in the upcoming elections.

  • Amelia Little

    05/20/2019 01:01 PM

    Again, tried to leave a comment on fb--but no go even though I can comment on other articles!!

    Actually, I think polls should be prohibited. Any poll is only what the person who paid for it. Who all DID they poll? And, for some, it seems the pollsters have zoomed in on people who give the answers they want and just keep asking those people. I'm 67 and not only have I never been "polled" I haven't come across any person in my world who has, either. And, how was the question worded? Perhaps so that any option provided skews the poll in the way the payer of the poll wants. Or, perhaps they question is so convoluted (as are the options provided) that the pollee has NO IDEA how to answer!!!! I guess it's karma that the msm and left wingers go with skewed polls to try to get anyone who listens to think the whole nation thinks their way--just to be aghast that their polls are wrong because they only asked a limited number of people!!! MAGA 2020

  • William Patrick Monaghan

    05/20/2019 01:00 PM

    Mike: I only have one thing to say, the masses are asses and the American voters prove that every time they vote for the far left agenda. What scares me the most is the young people who will be voting, they are buying into the propaganda pumped into them at all of the schools and universities.

  • joseph orsini PhD

    05/20/2019 12:57 PM

    STOLEN ELECTIONS are an ever-increasing threat, with millions of illegals and mail voting increasing. Here in CA I have absolutely no confidence that the 2020 election will be a true measure of the legal voters' desires.