For years, I’ve warned my readers not to put much stock in polls, and especially not polls taken months or even years in advance of elections. Of course, that never stops the media from ignoring actual news to obsess over them. Congressional polls can be misleading because national opinion may not carry much sway in a heavily partisan (gerrymandered) district. And they don’t take into account That-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named (vote fraud.)
All that said, it’s understandable why Congressional Democrats in swing states and districts would be sweating like a Canadian in Haiti over the latest polls on President Biden. If the midterm is the typical referendum on how the President is doing, then a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows that Democrats in the battleground state of Iowa may be facing a battle that makes like Custer’s odds at Little Big Horn look like a good bet.
It’s true that Iowa has been trending Republican with Trump winning by 8 points in 2016. But Biden’s approval among Iowans has plunged 12 points since June to a paltry 31% (62% disapprove.) His disapproval among Republicans is overwhelming, but he’s also down at 29% among Independents. On key issues, approval of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus has cratered by 17 points to 36%, and only 22% approve of his handling of the Afghanistan pullout. Frankly, I’m amazed it’s that high. Those must be people who wanted out of Afghanistan in the worst way and at all costs, and that’s precisely how Biden did it.
Meanwhile, a new national McLaughlin & Associates survey suggests that many Biden voters are suffering from a terminal case of buyers’ remorse. It found that if Trump were running against Biden today, Trump would win by 50-47%. In retrospect, “mean tweets” are starting to look like a pretty minor complaint. 52% of respondents agreed with this statement:
“I used to dislike Trump’s aggressive, confrontational style, but now that I see how weak Biden was in dealing with the Taliban in Afghanistan, I’m thinking maybe Trump wasn’t so bad.”
By 56 to 40%, they agreed that it “takes a tough man to be President,” and after seeing Biden’s weakness, they’re starting to appreciate Trump’s toughness and think we need more of that now.
It gets worse for the Democrats: 58% agree that Biden surrendered Afghanistan to the same Taliban that aided the terrorists that attacked us on 9/11; and 60% agree that under Trump, inflation, illegal immigration, gas prices and crime were all lower. Admittedly, those statements are less opinion based than a test of people’s memories.
Of course, all media stories about Biden’s abysmal polling have to end by reminding us that he could always turn this around. Except all of this is a result of his deliberate policies and decisions that he adamantly stands by. I also suspect these are the results of those policies, such as open borders, that the Democrats actually want, and they don’t care if Americans hate them. So if the first step to solving a problem is recognizing that you have a problem, I don’t see Biden doing anything in the immediate future but making matters worse until his approval rating is almost as low as that of Congress.