March 4, 2020

Super Tuesday has passed into the history books…

…So before Super Thursday arrives, let’s take stock of what we’ve learned:

1. Media talking heads obviously haven’t learned anything. The same people who were confidently predicting Bernie’s revolution, Joe Biden’s political demise and Bloomberg’s rise, or endorsing both Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, were caught totally flat-footed by Biden’s resurgence, Bernie’s wilt, Bloomberg’s humiliation and Warren’s inability even to place higher than third in her home state. Yet within minutes of the results arriving, they were already back to making more confident, totally baseless predictions. (Remember when they assured us the candidate most likely to be our next President was Kamala Harris?)

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As I said on my TV show two weeks ago, I might not agree with these candidates on anything, but I respect them all for having the courage to get in the game. None of the people commenting on them (present company excluded) have ever done that, yet they opine on it at length as if they were experts. If you just need something to fill your time, better to buy a DVD box of Looney Tunes cartoons than listen to them. Because, as I’ve been hammering away since I started my media career in 2009, you can’t trust polls, and the people inside the media bubble are largely out of touch with most of America. They have less understanding of people outside the Beltway than Mike Bloomberg does of farming. That’s why the only polls that matter are the ones where people actually vote.

2. Bernie may have done himself in by ignoring the advice, “Never go full commie.” Much of his popularity for years has depended on him being like an M&M: a lovable “Crazy Uncle” candy shell hiding the radical socialist within. A lot of people bought into that facade, particularly young people who have no actual memories of what real socialism/communism are like. They were miseducated to believe in “Democratic socialism,” which isn’t the icky kind with the goon squads and starvation but the shiny, happy kind, where the government gives you free stuff and pays your college tuition and sends the bill to greedy rich people. The only nation where that’s ever existed is Fantasyland.

But over the past couple of weeks, Bernie has given some interviews in which he allowed some cracks to open in his candy coating and reveal the reality inside. Like his defense of Fidel Castro: sure, he turned a paradise into a prison island and put dissenters in dungeons and in front of firing squads – but he also had that great literacy program! And free health care! I think the blinders may have come off some of his young followers, who failed to show up in the expected numbers, and especially older voters who hadn’t been paying that much attention. They suddenly realized that Bernie is an honest-to-Pete SOCIALIST, and he may claim he just admires Denmark, but he also thinks he sees Denmark when he's looking at Cuba.

When the reality finally started to dawn, Bernie’s revolution started crumbling faster than the Berlin Wall (for you youngsters: that was a concrete and barbed wire border wall designed to keep people in a socialist utopia from fleeing it, even though they still risked their lives to do so, just as Cubans took their chances with the sharks rather than stay there to enjoy Castro's free health care and literacy program.)

It’s extremely telling that Bernie did much better in early voting, with those who decided this week making a big surge away from him and toward Biden. Speaking of whom…

3. It’s true that Bernie didn’t do as well as expected and Biden far outperformed his…well, performance (largely thanks to black voters.) Biden even won Massachusetts! It's a big PR boost for his campaign, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Biden will win the nomination before the convention.

I mentioned last week that Democrats are always changing the rules based on the last election with no thought to how it might negatively affect them in future elections (for instance, wanting to eliminate the Electoral College because they lost there in 2016.) On Super Tuesday, they reaped more of the unintended consequences of their own fiddling with the process.

They now have no winner-take-all state primaries (that wasn’t “democratic” enough.) So even though Biden seems to be surging ahead of Bernie to the DNC’s great relief, they still could face a brutal contested convention because they have to divvy up the delegates proportionally between all candidates getting 15% or more of the vote (“Fairness!”) That makes it almost impossible for one candidate to top the 1,991-delegate threshold to clinch the nomination without a string of landslide wins -- unless either Bernie or Biden drops out (fat chance!) For instance, Biden scored a big morale victory by winning Texas, but by only a few points over Bernie. And with Bloomberg topping 15%, Biden may be hailed as the frontrunner, but he won’t collect many more delegates than Bernie.

Under their arcane rules, if a candidate scores a lopsided win, he/she/xe gets a much larger cut; but if it’s a close shave, the delegates are carved up more equally. Here’s some more on that, if you’d like your eyes to cross:

Democrats also agitated for years for early voting, thinking an extended voting period would benefit them. They didn’t consider how many Democrats would be furious because they cast early votes for Buttigieg, Steyer or Klobuchar only to have them drop out at the last minute, rendering their votes meaningless and keeping the delegate count fractured when they desperately want as many as possible to go to Biden.

The lesson I take from this is that despite their rebranding of themselves as “progressives,” these are the last people in the world you should trust to anticipate and plan wisely for the future.

4. Finally, the good news for Tom Steyer is that it’s likely he will have to hold the embarrassing record for the most expensive failed vanity Presidential campaign of all time for only a couple of days. The $250 million he spent pales next to the estimated $500 million Mike Bloomberg spent on a blitzkrieg of advertising to win a handful of delegates and exactly one primary, in American Samoa (5 delegates.)

At this writing, Bloomberg reportedly plans to stay in for the duration (but then, Warren says that, too.) He has another 123 half-billion dollars he could burn. But as it stands now, the one thing he’s accomplished for all that spending is to forever debunk the Democrats’ whining about how billionaires can use their money to buy elections.

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Comments 1-18 of 18

  • Herbert Schneider

    03/08/2020 05:01 PM

    I love your newsletter, is always on point. Hope Bernie Sanders makes a remarkable recovery and teaches the Dems a lesson.

  • Diana Jennings

    03/05/2020 02:20 PM

    Isn't this the first time the Democratic Party had such a large group of wannabes, only to be left with two aging Liberals; of which neither one is worthy of the highest office of the land? Old Bernie is a Communist traitor singing the song of Socialism, which is of the same fabric as Communism. How ironic that some of the wealthiest billionaires in America want to replace Capitalism and free enterprise with a Socialist state. Don't they realize that they themselves will lose everything they have and own, including their own fortunes. As for Creepy Joe, I shudder at the thought that he is still in the running. The man is obviously showing signs of dementia, or worse; Alzheimer's given the gaffes and misstatements in the speeches that he makes. Obviously, the Democratic Party is in disarray and with a lack of interesting and strong candidates; it can only mean that there will be a Republican landslide in November. But it isn't the time to be complacent and overconfident that the election is already wrapped up long before the party conventions.

  • Joyce Birch

    03/04/2020 06:38 PM

    As I always said you have a great newsletter touching every topic. Love the way you have the way with words (chuckle). You're so detailed in your opinion. Also, with Bloomberg supporting Biden, I think President Trump it won't be a slam dunk. Bloomberg has tons of money to throw around. I do agree with Eddie's comment regarding the president. I've been saying this for the last couple of years. He must stop the name calling. For an wealthy, educated man, makes him look small. We know what we voted, a non politican & want to continue to support him. I rathered Trump debated Sanders. If Biden wins, he may get Hillary as VP, OMG what a disaster!! Everyone pray hard.

  • Linda Black

    03/04/2020 06:19 PM

    According to Forbes, there are 607 billionaires in the USA. I’ve not seen or heard anyone in the media, print or TV point this out. Young Bernie supporters are very information savvy but none have apparently googled billionaires in the USA. Bernie keeps saying those evil billionaires need to pay their fair share but if you took every penny they have it wouldn’t begin to cover the programs and freebies Sanders has proposed. Someone should mention this outloud on a national scale.

  • Barbara Giroir

    03/04/2020 04:48 PM

    Mr Huckabee, I don't know how you do it? All this news everyday about these people & issues blows my mind. It honestly keeps my nerves on edge. It's the humor & insight you give that helps me not pull my hair To get through this every day takes being a God fearing believer. Thank you but I could not do what you do. My question is how on earth can anyone with bad heath mentality or physically be allowed to run in a Presidential election? These people who are over 72 yrs old should not qualify no matter how much money they have. Anyone who is the ripe old age of 72 should not legally run for any office. Is there anything that can be done to stop this madness?

  • Eddie Dickerson

    03/04/2020 03:06 PM

    I have been a staunch conservative and Trump supporter. However, as a man committed to following the Lord, stumbling often, I'm having a difficult time continuing to support him, strictly due to his constant name calling and belittling of people. I pray he is humbled and someone teaches him some manners and respect for his fellow man. He has made me think of him as a very small person, and that bothers me as well.


  • Kathryn Million

    03/04/2020 01:47 PM

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we learned the real reason Castro adopted a literacy program was so people could read his propaganda pamphlets...

  • j. debra halsmith

    03/04/2020 01:24 PM

    Don't know if anyone else tho't this, but is this even possible to happen... can Biden actually ask HRC to be VP? Then he's declared too incompetent [Demention/Azheimer's Disease] to carry on, then she becomes the president? Am a somewhat new USA citizen and haven't found this info anywhere that I've studied when preparing for my USA citizenship interview/questioning! Thanks in advance . . . enjoy the day!

  • Linda Stamper

    03/04/2020 01:20 PM

    Your post is brilliant, including brilliantly witty. I chuckled away reading such things as “designed to keep people in a socialist utopia from fleeing it” and “if you’d like your eyes to cross.” I think I’ll be quoting you a lot today.

  • Dottee Martin

    03/04/2020 01:07 PM

    Mike Huckabee
    Love your commentaries
    Bernie is being ousted by the deplorable democrats yet again! I predict Sleepy Joe will in fact be the Democrats nomination. He will be "trained" to read from a teleprompter throughout the remaining campaign since this seems to be the only way he can remember things. I also predict the cheating democrats will someway release the questions to Sleepy Joe's campaign prior to the debates. Should Sleepy Joe become President, his V.P. will run the country! Sleepy Joe is in early stages of dementia and I don't think he's capable of making critical decisions much less running a country!!

  • Cheryl Dowd

    03/04/2020 12:52 PM

    All the money spent campaigning would go a long way towards something that really matters: disaster relief, national debt reduction, feeding the homeless...

  • Lisa Ford

    03/04/2020 12:51 PM

    Yep, dems only offering confusion & watching each gang up to push others out. It's like watching the mean kids on a playground.

  • Anna Marie Eier

    03/04/2020 12:37 PM

    Just thank you for wise comments. I stayed up till California voted. NOT sure now if Sanders carried California,

  • Maureen Innis

    03/04/2020 12:23 PM

    What a choice the democrats have paraded out before the voters: Bernie the Commie or Deep State Joe.

  • Paul Potter

    03/04/2020 12:07 PM

    Looks like the DEMOCRATS want Joe Biden (who apparently has some sort of dementia- my father in law had alzheimers) and put Hillary Clinton in as vice president. Then replace Joe with her.

  • ken

    03/04/2020 12:06 PM

    Super Tuesday, Carnival Fun House
    Bernie needs a Hitler mustache!

  • Nathan Mitre

    03/04/2020 11:49 AM

    Why does the media keep telling us the delegate count? Aren't the Democrats only interested in the popular vote? Don't they want a legitimate nominee?

  • Sara Alsup

    03/04/2020 11:02 AM

    Do Biden's big wins mean a third term for Obama? Don't see how Biden can make a decision for the country if he can't remember who is his wife and who is his sister, or what state he's in. He needs Obama in the oval office to direct his thoughts. And I am being sarcastic.