Weeks of shameful, misleading and overheated rhetoric and media coverage comparing US detention centers for illegal immigrants to Auschwitz doesn’t seem to be having the intended effect.
The latest YouGov Battleground tracking poll for CBS News shows the Democrats’ generic ballot advantage for the November elections is down to only 4 points. When asked what should be done with families caught trying to enter the US illegally, only 21% believe they should be released in the US and required to show up for a hearing later. Nearly two-thirds (63%) believe the families should either be sent back where they came from or arrested. It’s true that separating families is very unpopular, but so is replacing border security with a welcome mat. A slim majority (51%) now approve of a border wall, and 61% say the recent media controversy over detention centers hasn’t changed their opinion of President Trump, while 10% say it’s made them like him more.
It gets even more interesting when you look at the party breakdown of the group polled. The total of those who are Democrat, strong Democrat or lean Democrat is 40%. Another 22% describe themselves as Independents. Only 34% are Republican, strong Republican or lean Republican. In a time when the vote margin is often a razor-thin 50-50, the Democrats have only a 4-point lead among a poll sample where they outnumber Republicans by 6 points. And the poll has a margin of error of +or- 2.6%, so a 4-point lead is meaningless.
Remember when I was one of the few people who predicted a Trump win in 2016 when everyone else was crowing over polls showing Hillary with a double-digit lead? It’s internals like this that convinced me. If they had to oversample Democrats by 24 points to get her to an 11-point lead, she was in trouble.
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These polls also don’t take in to account the shock and revulsion of decent Americans at seeing leftist thugs harassing and threatening women and children who are associated with the White House, or the shameful spectacle of party leaders like Maxine Waters actually encouraging such repugnant behavior. Those who block real history from schools are doomed to repeat it, and the current wave of “Resistance” Millennials were obviously never taught how the Silent Majority reacted in 1968 to seeing all those self-righteous rioters at the Chicago Democratic Convention. Americans quite understandably decided that those uncivilized, radical loons needed to be kept far away from the levers of government power, and they showed up at the polls to vote accordingly.
Republicans should not get overconfident, but they also shouldn’t be demoralized by the talk of a “blue wave” and Democratic poll leads. Remember the computer term, GIGO: “Garbage in, garbage out.” The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and no liberal media outlet can screen your opinion out of that one.