After I suggested mistaken identity as a likely explanation for Christine Blasey Ford’s certainty that Brett Kavanaugh was her attacker, an article appeared that reinforces that theory.

I had said that both Dr. Ford and Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh seemed utterly sincere in their testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday.  Elizabeth Loftus, a cognitive psychologist and professor at the University of California, Irvine, says it’s absolutely possible that both actually ARE sincere.  After spending decades researching human memory –- specifically, how it can change based on suggestion and other factors –- she says it’s very common to misremember details of an experience, particularly a traumatic one.

She says some “core” details might be remembered but peripheral ones not so much.  That echoes what Dr. Ford herself said in testimony, as she tried to explain why she didn’t know where the party was or how she got home.  But over time, memory changes, according to Loftus, especially with exposure to new information, and that’s something Dr. Ford didn’t go into.  “Changing the details of an actual memory is a relatively easy thing to do,” Loftus says.  “And it can happen spontaneously.”



What about victims who are “100 percent certain” of the identity of their attackers, as Dr. Ford said she was?  “Sometimes people are very, very certain and wrong,” says Loftus.  That’s just the point I was making in bringing up The Innocence Project, which uses DNA to exonerate people who were wrongly convicted and given long prison sentences for violent crimes.  There have been many innocent men sent to prison for decades because the victim in the case was “100 percent certain” of her attacker’s identification.  Literally hundreds have been exonerated through DNA testing.  Mistaken ID is the cause of 70 percent of wrongful convictions.  If victims and other eyewitnesses were always right about this, we'd have much less need for an Innocence Project.

Perhaps a victim remembers being pushed into a room or onto a bed, for example, but isn’t clear on who did it.  She’s always going to remember certain details central to the attack itself, but, over time (in this case, 36 years), other details may come to be remembered quite differently from the way they happened.  These might even include the identity of the attacker.  The victim becomes convinced of that person’s guilt and even can create vivid new “memories” of what happened.  Every time the mind replays them, they are reinforced.

Of course, someone in Kavanaugh’s situation can misremember, too, perhaps because of too much alcohol.  A perpetrator may become totally convinced he’s innocent when in fact he isn’t.  So how can we tell that Kavanaugh really is as innocent as he genuinely thinks he is?  Well, we can look at his calendar to get an idea of what he was actually doing, consider his basic nature and values, how he lives his life, what his legions of friends and colleagues (male and female) who have known him for most of his life say about him.  The allegations against him are just wildly inconsistent with what his longtime, close acquaintances know about him.  So it seems highly unlikely that he ever did such a thing.


RELATED READING:  The Kavanaugh hearings and the case for mistaken identity


Anyway, mistaken identity would account for the overwhelming probability that Kavanaugh is 100 percent innocent while Dr. Ford is 100 percent sure he’s the one who attacked her.  This is the problem with automatically believing the victim in every case.  It doesn’t mean the victim is lying, just that she’s 100 percent convinced of something that might be wrong.  Of course, that doesn’t matter one bit to Senate Democrats, who are 100 percent desperate to keep Kavanaugh (or any Trump nominee) off the Court.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kavanaugh-hearing-very-very-certain-wrong-202229531.html

 

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Comments 1-25 of 161

  • Michael R Batchelor

    10/02/2018 09:07 AM

    > Of course, that doesn’t matter one bit to Senate Democrats, who are
    > 100 percent desperate to keep Kavanaugh (or any Trump nominee) off the Court.

    If the Kavanaugh nomination fails, since there's no "acceptable" nominee on the face of the earth, I suggest Trump should nominate Roy Moore.

  • Rev.Sam Martin

    10/02/2018 04:38 AM

    I have been following this saga from the beginning and I can tell you that we have some people who are either stupid or blind if they cannot see that the attacks are not true. The more time given to them to investigate will only bring up more lying attacks. I am sorry to say many people will do anything if you put money in their faces. I have seen people who have been paid to lie and they don’t care who they hurt they just want the payday. Keep up the good work of reporting real news.

  • Roselyn M. Cooper

    10/01/2018 06:02 PM

    Sir, you must get this report out into a more visible venue. Please. Conservatives out in the heartland are totally frustrated with the way devious democrat schemes so easily succeed. Do they have a death threat cartel keeping everyone in line?

  • Donna Young

    10/01/2018 03:47 PM

    Some thoughts ... out of the 5-6 people at this “party” who told her about it or invited her? Her friend and the others deny her claims of the party. If the house is 8 miles away someone had to have told her about it - you just don’t show up at someone’s house and hope there’s a party there. Nobody asked her how she knew about it.
    And I find it interesting that she is a psychiatrist who helps others when she can’t help herself. What makes her qualified to be a psychiatrist? This is the person giving advice to others? At least Judge Kavanaugh has proved himself capable of the job she feels he shouldn’t have.
    And then they delay the hearing cause she can’t fly but she flies there anyway and admits to flying often. So strange.
    I’m sure all those people throwing stones have no business being judge and jury.
    She might need that go fund me money to pay for a huge defamation and libel suit.

  • Ch.Bonnie Baker

    10/01/2018 02:14 PM

    I agree. Having been through many traumas. And, having worked with many trauma survivors. Have been seeing this throughout. Thank you for this expose’. B.

  • Lee Kania

    10/01/2018 01:51 PM

    My conclusion is that she is just straight up lying. Why? Because she lied during her testimony for no reason except to make her psychological damage look worse than it was. She claimed that because of her fears of being trapped caused by the attack by the Judge she insisted on having a 2nd front door put in when they were remodeling their home. Her husband was against this as aesthetically it looked awful. As a result of this argument she told him she had been sexually attacked and they agree she needed to see a therapist. The year was 2012. But according to some private investigators, building code records say the 2nd front door was added in 2008. The purpose was a counseling business was being started and there was a need for a 2nd entrance for clients. So obviously the 2012 therapy session had nothing to do with an additional 2nd front door. Why would she lie about a trivial matter? I can thing of no other reason, except to make her mental damage seem worse. My opinion is, if she lied about this, maybe the whole thing is a clever lied.

    Everyone says she has nothing to gain by coming forward, so she must be telling the truth. Only someone from the left would say something like that. We who are on the right have heard the hysterical left screams about what will happen if Kavanaugh is nominated to the Supreme court. Millions will die, or this country will no longer be the USA. Abortion wasn't written into the bill of rights, so we were united states for 150 years without it. But who needs any logic?

    Dr Ford is on the left. She has hired 2 radically left lawyers. This was a week after she sent Diane F. the letter and told her, she wanted this to remain confidential, but then lawyered up with 2 political leftist? She also lied about her fear of flying because of the 40 year old attack to extend the hearings. My guess was not to just delay the hearings but to get intensive prep work on how to deliver her message. What was with her Shirley Temple scared voice? some of her students said they were afraid of her. So don't think she spoke in a little girl's voice to her students? It sure helped her, that the Republicans hired a prosecutor who fed her softball questions with absolute no urgency in her questioning. Nevertheless this prosecutor just submitted a report and said the case was very weak and no charges would have been issued if it had been brought to the police.

    I'm sorry she is straight out lying. This is just a clever made up story for the purpose of preventing a nominee chosen by President Trump from being confirmed. She will get her leftist wish and be highly compensated for it. This woman is a Jezebel, may God have mercy on her soul.

  • Dietrich Wichmann

    10/01/2018 02:23 AM

    It can be proven that Dr Ford lied under oath about her polygraph experience. Why did she lie about this issue, amongst others?
    The mistaken identity hypothesis gives her the benefit of the doubt. I don't do that in light of this evidence, which is very damning indeed.

  • harry thomas

    10/01/2018 02:20 AM

    ....interesting!!....one of the first things that came to mind when watching this "three ring circus" was the Innocence Project; the number of innocent people who suffered unconscionably from mistaken identity combined with an often corrupt/incompetent justice system. Since you thought of this also, i don't feel quite as dumb as i did yesterday....thank you. Anyway, good piece and keep up the good work, harry

  • Ark Tiv

    10/01/2018 01:18 AM

    The Devil's Triangle is a drinking game. Renate Alumnis was a term of endearment. FFFF is a farting sound. The judge lied about these things & more during his testimony. Why?

  • Shelia Sargent

    09/30/2018 10:19 PM

    She did not come off as believable to me. I've known people who take one little fact and then convince themselves of a whole different story than of what actually happened. And are totally convinced that they are right, even after shown proof it didn't happen. How scary, this world we live in! Love you and your daughter! Keep fighting for us!

  • Peggy Siragusa

    09/30/2018 08:57 PM

    Although it totally breaks my heart what they have done to Brett Kavanaugh, I pray for his continued strength and perseverance. Also it keeps coming to mind that through this he is laying up crowns of righteousness.

  • Linda Cooper

    09/30/2018 08:26 PM

    sir, I'm concerned that no matter what is rebutted against this unfortunate woman, that is being led by the left, we are in trouble. No one wants to believe anything that is produced against her and for the Judge. I feel compassion for this mentally ill and sad woman, but I also feel that Judge Kavanaugh is not guilty of her accusations. my prayers are for the healing of the USA but I also know that we reap what we sow and the Lord is coming soon. Blessings on you and your family. From a sister in Christ.

  • Shirley Cross

    09/30/2018 06:11 PM

    I don't believe that Ms. Ford is 100% certain. I think someone is behind her accusing Bret Kavanaugh to begin with. I don't believe any woman in this case or in Cosby's case that waits decades to speak up. If they wait that long it must not have been too upsetting to begin with.

  • Donna Krecklow

    09/30/2018 05:47 PM

    My brother was a police officer for many years and he says eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable. You have a good analysis here. Another point is that hers was a "recovered" memory. I'm old enough to remember the false memory scandals back in the 80s. Day care centers all over the nation were suspect and lives were ruined as allegations of child abuse, satanic ritual, and other horrible accusations were made. Again, from my police officer brother, he has investigated and studied so-called recovered memories and has never found one that was reliably proven to be factual. The mind is malleable and given the right set of circumstances can "remember" things that never happened.

  • Jeanette Ann Wutzke

    09/30/2018 05:41 PM

    I believe that if something like this did happen, I can't believe she didn't tell someone about it in the 36yrs. I know if it were me I would tell my sister, close friend, Mom, teacher. It would have been someone. It goes like this "If I tell you something bad, will you keep it to yourself " You will remember telling this person what happen. I just do not believe she is telling the truth for this reason. Also, at 15 yrs old, you just don't keep going to all these parties when you know this is happening. I think she just want to be loved and she didn't care how. Probably was from a family were love wasn't shown...I know of a gal, honest, that almot got this guy in a lot of trouble because he wouldn't go with her. She told everyone that he did bad things to her. It was not true! He never did it. Women can be very evil and will do things unthinkable to get their way..... It's not uncommon....

  • Vickie Whitford

    09/30/2018 03:22 PM


    Thank you for your article. The judge is such a fine person. I pray for him and his family. Do we need to check through Hi School year book? REALLY!!!

  • Elaine Dancer

    09/30/2018 03:21 PM

    I’m just an ordinary person who is dealt with thousands of people, a big percentage of them being women, and this was what I thought from the beginning… Dr. Ford experienced something terrible, but it wasn’t Judge Kavanaugh who did it! She thinks it was, and he knows he is innocent!!!

  • Susan Brashier

    09/30/2018 03:07 PM

    You and your family are in my prayers.

  • MARSHALL PHILLIPS

    09/30/2018 02:20 PM

    Thanks for this article Mike. I'm not much into "head games" but this sure seems to describe the 2 testimonies on Thursday, After this final background checking by the FBI, I hope the at least one or two of the swing votes will see their way to vote YES on this nomination!

  • Barbara Burgess

    09/30/2018 12:28 PM

    I think there should be DNA requirements in allegations such as this ,and since that is not possible in this case, it should be dropped and inadmissible. Going forward, in all cases of allegations whether political or personal, DNA Should be required for Proof...perhaps THIS will encourage victims to come forward and report to law enforcement a short time or immediately after said incident ....instead of burying it for 36 yrs!
    She should have reported to LAW Enforcement NOT politicians. There should be Protocol.....otherwise allegations NOT VALID!

  • Howard Begley

    09/30/2018 12:17 PM

    As construed in the article thoughts of how a person is not accurately portraying the event that happened. It all can also be construed that he made a terrible mistake all those years ago and it actually did happen but now he has to much to lose by admitting it now ! He since then has lived a stainless life and it would be to shocking to fess up ! The pain of hurting the image he has worked so hard to build to his family and colleuges is a easy survival mode choice when faced with being found out. Just as the President will not confess to something that actually happened because there is to much to lose. So as long as no tape exists or eye witness you just deny deny deny ! How shocking it was for everyone to believe Bill Cosby actually committed aweful things that years later now show otherwise. If you then believe that this can not happen then you are unable to look at both sides fairly.

  • Sharon King

    09/30/2018 12:13 PM

    We are so thankful for your voice of reason. (Always thought you would be an awesome president)!! There are so many wonderful comments to you theory. I couldn't read them all, but Bella Gray was very powerful. Stay strong and prayers for your family. Love your daughter Sarah! Sincerely, Sharon and Wayne King

  • Dusty Hickey

    09/30/2018 12:05 PM

    YES! What this Calif professor says is what has been written about on other sexual victims. One of two things either this Dr Ford was at one time attacked by someone and she is using this to advance her liberal beliefs is possible. She tries to say she is so traumatized. No, this one incident is not totally why. She has some other problems as an RN and having worked with real rape victims and know of women sexually abused by their own fathers, that this Dr for 36 years has been so upset. NO, something more is at work here. Judge Kavenaugh I am hearing now see how he was so upset and lost control No kidding Dick Tracy I would have been spitting out FIRE if I knew I was totally innocent. Bring up the drinking and he must have been a drunk alcoholic and not in control.. Tell me about any young people and I partied in my twenties in Calif and we played Quarters I never saw or experienced any of the white men I was with sexually attack anyone. This now is beyond the pale. We are not totally nuts.

  • Margaret Chaney

    09/30/2018 11:42 AM

    The sad thing is that we’ve become a society that’s lost ALL reason and we’ve become the mob rule. It’s good to hear from a few sane people that are still around. You are a breath of fresh air. Bill Bennett, Newt, Lindsey Graham , Franklin Graham and some others. please keep up the dialog and the truth reason. We need to hear it hasn’t completely “ left the building”. God is our strength in a time like this. Not popular to hear. But, eventually , he will reign victorious and ALL will fall on their knees before him. Thank you Huck! Appreciate what you do everyday and love your humor!

  • Lynn BRADLEY

    09/30/2018 10:54 AM

    Sincerely sure of her memories but sincerely wrong. The FBI'S reputation is hanging by a thread. God only knows the outcome of their investigation. We can only pray for our country and all those involved. Evil is on the prowl.