It Is Primary Tuesday

May 17, 2016 |

If it’s Tuesday, there must be more primaries. The Republican primary in Oregon is mostly of interest for local races, since Donald Trump is the only presidential choice still standing. On the Democratic side, Hillary and Bernie will continue their Monty Python’s King Arthur vs. The Black Knight routine in Oregon and Kentucky (Hillary keeps hacking away at Bernie, and he keeps shouting, “It’s only a flesh wound!” and coming back at her.)

(BTW, if you think that’s too violent a metaphor, Google Saturday night’s Nevada Democratic convention in Las Vegas, which included thrown chairs, death threats and an early end when security could no longer keep order. Clinton-supporting State Sen. Pat Spearman claimed to have seen an elderly woman hit with a bottle. She said, "It was beyond the pale. There's no reason to do that. That's the kind of shenanigans that they do on the other side." For the record, I’ve attended countless Republican get-togethers over the decades, and I’ve never once seen violent, childish behavior like that. Unless, of course, some leftwing agitators show up and start it. You can tell they aren’t Republicans because Republicans pick up their trash, they don’t throw it in people’s faces.)

It’s hard to predict the results. There’s been only one poll in each state, and they show Hillary winning. And she tends to do better in closed primaries. But Oregon’s demographics are similar to Washington State, and Bernie trounced her there with over 72% of the vote. Kentucky borders West Virginia and is also a big coal state, and Hillary is about as popular with coal miners as black lung disease. My personal hunch is that Bernie will win both but it won’t do him much good, because the Democratic primary delegate system is like a big game of “Sorry!” with only one player ever being allowed to get past square one.

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